The electorate is typically substantially smaller because the New York City’s mayoral elections are held in off-years, meaning there isn’t a presidential race on the ballot. Additionally, because older voters tend to be more politically active, it tends to skew older than presidential elections. Furthermore, early voters are typically older than those who cast ballots on election day.
The older demographic of those who cast ballots during the initial days of early voting was therefore not surprising. However, there was a significant increase in younger voters on the last day of early voting. This made the last wave of early voters even younger than those who cast ballots in the general election of 2024.
Though it’s also important to note that both candidates have a sizable portion of support in older age groups, Zohran Mamdani’s supporters are typically younger, while former Governor Andrew M. Cuomo has greater support among older voters. With likely voters under 30, Mr. Mamdani topped Mr. Cuomo 73 percent to 10 percent in a September New York Times/Siena survey. They were deadlocked among voters aged 65 and over.
New Yorkers Voted by Age & New Jerseyans Voted by Party
According to more recent surveys, voters in their 50s, 60s, and older give Mr. Cuomo a tiny edge. Why not make a comparison between this election and the 2021 mayoral race? For starters, there was little competition in that election; Eric Adams received more than twice as many votes as Mr. Sliwa, his nearest rival.
Such a comparison wouldn’t reveal much because there was less suspense, which meant that fewer individuals of all ages showed up to vote early. Since its implementation in 2019, early voting has also gradually increased in popularity in New York. It’s difficult to predict precisely how early and election day voting will ultimately be distributed given the overall trend toward early voting.
New York City does not disclose the number of mail-in ballots returned prior to the election, so the early votes displayed here for 2025 do not include mail-in votes. Like it’s obvious that the number of mail-in ballots returned thus far is tabulated for Virginia and New Jersey below.
Voters in New Jersey register according to their political party. Accordingly, we may determine whether one party is especially energized or depressed based on the early voting results.
Compared to Republicans, Democrats are more likely to cast early ballots. Democrats accounted for over half of the early vote this year. Furthermore, it is difficult to forecast exactly what will occur on election day due to the added percentage of unaffiliated voters and the fact that voters do not necessarily choose the candidate of their party.
For instance, Democrats in New Jersey had a 12-percentage-point lead over Republicans in 2024 when it came to the party registration of all voters. However, the Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris won the state by a mere six points.
In the years since the pandemic, people have been forming new preferences for how they cast their ballots, just like in other countries. Many more voters from both parties now cast their ballots early, either in person or by mail. Comparisons to the previous governor’s contest in 2021 are therefore less useful.
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